Decoupling

I'm currently invovled in several projects which involve long-term scenario construction or more general forecasting. For me, the future has always been more interesting than the past.

I've just been reading about the awesome potential computing power of future quantum computers and am looking forward to the day when my computer with a few hundred qubit capacity could store more numbers than there are thought to be atoms in the universe!! And I'm writing an article with a colleague from the University of Queensland on wicked problems, social messes and the relevance of quantum mechanics for the solution of increasingly complex urban planning problems through the extension of the idea of private - public partnerships (PPP).

And, as consultant to Australia's cotton industry, I'm looking at the future of Australian agriculture. This is mind-boggling task, not least because I'm trying to balance still explosive population growth, a likely decline in productive agricultural land, rising unavailability (and price) of conventional fuels, galloping technolgical development (which are vast in agriculture alone), huge economic growth in south and east Asia (and the GRIC countries) with associated consumption of different agricultural commodities, the transformation of agriculture from family operation to corporate enterprise ... now well under way in Australia, and the globalisation of agribusiness (now also well under way here with Chinese companies now buying up the Australian farm so to speak. On top of this, Australia's population is now expected grow faster than the world's in the next 40 years ... the only developed economy in this position. Our current 22 million population is now forecast to be c. 36 million by 2050, with an annual growth rate >2%.

Well, all this is considerable fun, even if hair-rising. Perhaps my acute lack of hair reduces the fraught side of the equation. Anyway, I've long thought that strong future orientation is one of the elixirs of life, so perhaps i'm in the process of extending my life span by a decade or so.

AS