Monday, 2 September 2019

Extreme Drought

Hi Folks,

We're in the middle of what might be the worst drought ever for the Armidale region. We have had virtually no rain now for the last 3 months and the year's total to date so far in 2019 is perhaps only 35% of normal rain.

Have look at this map, which explores the gory details of this drought event for the whole country. Hardly anywhere is above average rainfall for the last 3 months and most places are drought affected.


And the Armidale district is now deep red in colour - the worst on record. Who knows when it's going to end! The cause seems to be related to a massive southward shift in pressure systems over places like ours that are roughly 30 degrees south. Put another way, high pressure systems are normally located close to Alice Springs in the middle of the country. This year, those systems have been displaced southwards by c. 1500 km (800 miles) and are located well south of the continent much of the time.

This means that the vigorous frontal systems coming in from the southern ocean have also been displaced south. While they often reach as far north as Armidale dropping quite a bit of rain, this year they've only impacted the south-west of the continent (Perth),  south-western Victoria, Tasmania and, strangely, the Sydney region.

Worse still, the monthly rain projection for our district is close to zero. Indeed, one forecast I've seen suggests that we'll be in drought until 2021!!! Already, Armidale is on level 4 (out of 5) water restrictions and we cannot legally water our garden or plants. I now take a shower only 2-3 times a week rather than daily. Some lucky people have added water tanks to their homes or have access to bore water and can by-pass at least some of the effects of water use restriction.

AS

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